Written by Mousumi Bhattacharjee and Suresh Chandra Babu
The absence of early warning systems
Adaptation and mitigation strategies are essential for addressing climate change impacts. What if such strategies are available, but the beneficiaries cannot take advantage of them? Recent evidence from certain regions in India raises concerns that disparities could lead to food and humanitarian crises in the future. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is about enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change to keep temperature rise to a maximum of 2°C or 1.5°C. To qualify for financial support from participating nations, countries must have well-functioning early warning systems and comprehensive disaster preparedness and management strategies.
The absence of early warning systems and the tragic consequences farmers endure as a result underscore the injustices prevalent within our food systems, raising urgent concerns about equity and resilience. How ready are Indian states to receive funding for climate-related disasters? What does this mean for regions like the potato belt of India, where farmers are increasingly vulnerable to climatic risks? According to a study by CEEW - Think Tank & Policy Research Institute in India, West Bengal is a forerunner in flood early warning systems; a solution that can reduce losses and save lives, and that policymakers should leverage. However, recent events in Bengal tell a different story.
The impact of cyclones on farmers
Cyclone Michaung hit India’s eastern coast on 5 December, 2023. The Cyclone struck farmers of West Bengal exposing the flaws in the current system. Inadequate warnings led to severe losses for the potato farmers of southern regions of West Bengal who had recently planted seeds. The rice fields of these farmers, many of whom were already heavily indebted, were inundated.
The regions most affected are select blocks of Singur, in the south-eastern part of the state. Farmers of West Midnapore and Bankura, in the central western region of the state, were unable to harvest their Aaman rice due to waterlogging. Farmers in Bengal received some support from the Kisan Credit Card or the Krishan Bandhu schemes but they still face a myriad of issues such as difficulty importing high-quality seeds from the north-Indian state of Punjab, lack of cold storage facilities, limited export opportunities, random distribution of cold storage bonds, and reliance on high-interest private micro-credit loans.
The plight of farmers is similar across the state. Previously, untimely rains flooded potato farms in different districts of Jalpaiguri, in the north of Bengal, a part of India’s potato cultivation belt. Additionally, the trend of small farmers diversifying their income, through activities like raising small livestock is declining.
Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, potato farmers faced similar challenges after Cyclone Michaung. Another cyclone, Cyclone Jawad, which caused similar devastation in the state, resulted in three tragic farmer suicides in central Bengal while Cyclone Michaung took the lives of two farmers in south central districts. The question of whether Cyclone Michaung alone bears responsibility for an effective early warning system that could have saved lives remains a much-debated question in policy circles. Meanwhile, farmer suicides and crop losses are increasing in neighbouring Bangladesh due to climate change, which is unfortunately a significant factor driving these rising rates.
More recently, Cyclone Remal, in May 2024, severely affected coastal regions of West Bengal (like Kakdwip, Namkhana, and Frazerganj) as it changed direction and traversed majorly over Bangladesh. It was one of the longest cyclones in the history of Bangladesh, destroying over 1,530 square kilometres of land and crops like rice, fruits, and oilseeds.
In response to Cyclone Michaung and Cyclone Remal, the government announced a compensation of, Rs. 10,000 to 1.2 crore farmers in the state. However, there are barely any estimates available in the public domain regarding the financial resources required for the state to contribute to the adaptation of GGA.
Anticipatory actions, such as cash transfers before the occurrence of the disaster, improve welfare. For instance, a 2021 study in Bangladesh, found that anticipatory cash transfers, even a day before the event improved food intake during the crisis period. Households receiving cash transfers were 36 per cent less likely to be hungry for even a day than households who did not receive the transfers. Successful implementation of anticipatory efforts will require the beneficiaries to be familiar with the usage of mobile phones and also possess one. We propose that governments consider doling out mobile phones to farmers, particularly those with limited financial resources. This can facilitate easy access to information from early warning systems, allow live information to be shared on the extent of damage caused, and avail benefits before the disaster. However, it is important to learn from past interventions, such as the distribution of Mindspark-loaded tablets to children during the COVID-19 pandemic, which had minimal impact on improving their learning outcomes. The reason was the usage of tablets for other streaming purposes and the lack of proper training to navigate such learning platforms
The stalled World Bank project on installing early warning systems in the state is alarming. Urgent action is needed to address food systems injustices and cultivate equity within the agricultural sector. Stakeholders must work to prevent further loss of lives, crops, and stabilize prices and address the disconnect between available technologies like robust early warning systems and farmers' access. Without these efforts, resilience-building measures, and achieving just food systems for all will remain far-fetched.
Digital solutions and future outlook
Given the frequent cyclones in India’s potato belt, more so due to climate change, there is an urgent need for effective early warning systems. Farmers in Tamil Nadu resort to the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Automated Agro Advisory Service (TNAU AAS) app for real-time, weather-based solutions, including crop selection, sowing times, and precise extreme weather alerts.
In Tajikistan, early warning systems assist livestock farmers in tracking and adapting to changing conditions. In collaboration with Caritas Suisse, the Tajikistan government collates real-time data on livestock movements, location-based observations on soil degradation within mountain pastures, and environmental and meteorological data within national pasture areas.
The recent 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE Conference), held from 3 – 7 August 2024, in India, focused on solutions for climate resiliency in agriculture for India and others. However, digitalisation in Asian countries faces barriers such as insufficient funding for climate initiatives involving digital technologies, a lack of ICT policies that integrate climate adaptation and mitigation, limited climate data, capacity gaps, weak regional cooperation, inequitable access to essential technology and infrastructure, the high cost of digital agriculture technologies (which restricts adoption by small-scale farmers), dependence on stable energy supplies, and the negative environmental impact of disposal of digital agriculture technology. Digital dashboards are the need of the hour for building climate resiliency in Asian agricultural systems.
To truly safeguard the future of agriculture in vulnerable regions like India’s potato belt, these technological advancements must not only be developed but also made accessible to those who need them most. Policymakers, industry leaders, and international organizations must work together to bridge these gaps, ensuring that early warning systems and other digital tools are effectively implemented and that farmers are equipped to utilize them. Without these concerted efforts, the goal of achieving equitable and resilient food systems will remain out of reach.
The preparation of this blog is partly funded by USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change. Authors alone are responsible for its content.
References
14 Indian States Are at the Forefront of Flood Early Warning Systems: CEEW Study | CEEW
Bengal LoP demands compensation for farmers affected by Cyclone Michaung | CanIndia News
Cyclone Michaung: Bengal CM announces relief for affected farmers (siasat.com)
Cyclone Michaung: Crops in 93k ha damaged in Bapatla- The New Indian Express
Cyclone Michaung: farmers urged to take harvested paddy to rice mills to prevent damage - The Hindu
Early Warning System (rightsindevelopment.org)
Potato crops destroyed as West Bengal govt failed to warn farmers: Suvendu – ThePrint – PTIFeed
West Bengal Farmers Take Own Lives Amid Crop Losses From Unseasonal Rainfall (outlookindia.com)
West Bengal to have 'early warning system' in flood prone districts - Oneindia News
Global goal on adaptation | UNFCCC
Cyclone Remal: Crops on 1.53 lakh hectares affected | The Daily Star
Climate Risk Country Profile, Bangladesh
Digital Transformation for Climate Action and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems in Asia at the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, August 3 2024 New Delhi, India, Suresh Babu, IFPRI Washington DC
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kss.tnauaas&hl=en_IE&pli=1
India and Bangladesh cyclone death toll rises (lemonde.fr)
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Pople, A., Hill, R., Dercon, S., and Brunckhorst, B. (2021). Anticipatory cash transfers in climate disaster response. CSAE Working Paper WPS/2021-7. Available online at: https://www.disasterprotection.org/s/FINALAnticipatory_Cash_Transfers_in_Climate_Disaster_ResponseforWPF3.pdf (accessed 23 June, 2022).
